In this article, and the next several articles, I will statistically breakdown several
MyVegas slots in effort to find actual payout percentages and standard deviations. This is in effort to provide information on which slots are the best to wager your chips on in MyVegas Slots.
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Reel Chef is the first slot I decided to analyze because of its popularity and feel of consistency.
Some housekeeping and background on the math involved in this article.
Due to the relatively high volatility of slot payouts, the data here was collected in sample sizes of 100 spins with a total sample size of over 500, for a total of over 5,000 spins. To get a perfectly accurate win percentage, tens of thousands of samples would need to be collected taking weeks. However, with the data I have collected, I am confident in the results being an accurate representation of the house edge in this slot.
For information on how slots function
internally I have written a quick read article here in
My Other Blog, and for a more complicated explanation see
Wizard of Odds: Deconstructing Jackpot Party
As you probably know as a slot player, the House Edge on slots is generally fairly high, around 10%. This means for every 1,000 credits deposited into the machine you should EXPECT to loose 100 credits.
Please read the summary below, and then see the following graphs as they will help explain things better.
Results from MyVegas Reel Chef Slot:
Over the 5,000 spins, Reel Chef had a expected payout of -7.75% with a standard error of 2.2%.
Because one standard error only results in 68% accuracy we need to use two standard errors in this case to increase the confidence level of the data to 95%. Two standard errors are roughly 4.4%. We add and subtract the 4.4% from the sample result to get -3.1% to -12.15%
In layman's terms, this means over the long run, you have a 95% chance to loose between 3% and 12% on this slot, and on average your losses will be roughly 7.75%.
The Standard Deviation for this slot is roughly 16%.
Over any given small sample you will have a 95% chance to fall within two standard deviations or +/- 32% off the 7.5% house edge and this would not be considered statistically abnormal.
In layman's terms this means in the short run (think 100 spin samples), you have a 95% chance to fall in a range of -39.75% to up +24.25% (see image below)
Here is a link to a spreadsheet with all of the data points I collected.
Analyzing Reel Chef.
Below are a few graphs of the data I collected as well as a summary of what we can learn from it.
Below is an graph of a theoretical 300,000 starting value over 5,000 spins at 5 Credits / spin or 100 Cr total wagers
As you can see in this graph the bankroll over the long run decreased with occasional short increases.
The following graph shows the addition of a trend-line which shows the average expected house edge, as well as Standard Error lines.
This graph I will take some time to explain.
The Green Line This was the actual results of each 100 spin sample plotted over time.
The purple lines are 2 standard errors, or the effect of the +/- 4.4% on the 7.75% house edge. As you can see the longer the run, the greater the standard error has an effect. Overall 95% of the Green Line should fall within these lines.
The Orange Line Represents 1 Standard Error, 68% of the Green line Should fall within these values.
The Red Line This line represents a 7.75% house edge, or what we expect to loose, we would expect our result to cross this line occasionally but to always trend with it.
The following graph adds in standard error lines to show where the results should fall between 95% of the time.
This graph shows the plotted percentage gain or loss for each sample as Blue Dots.
The Red and Grey Lines represent 2 Standard Deviations, or where 95% of plotted dots should land between.
The Orange Line in the middle represents the mean or average loss we expect.
Okay, so what all does this mean?
Well Unfortunately right now not a whole lot.
-We know for a fact that the house edge is somewhere very close to 8% and definitely not over 12% which quells some rumors of a 15% house edge.
-If other slots are coming up closer to 10% or closer to 5% then we begin to gather which slot is the best to earn the most Lp on.
-We also know this slot's Standard Deviation, and when other slots are analyzed we will be able to use that for comparison purposes. Another slot may have a lower Standard Deviation and a higher house edge, overall in this case you would loose more on the other slot but have less likelyhood of bad streaks.
-Also this data provides for comparison purposes in the event double xp is run or other special promotions in which some people believe the slots are tightened up. Using this data compared to data obtained during an event like that means regression analysis can be performed. We will then know if the payouts change during special events.
Thank you for reading, hopefully you find this information useful and I will continue over the coming weeks to add more analysis of other slots.
