MyVegas Slot Reel Chef Payout: Double XP Analysis

This article will examine a sample of play during a "Double XP Happy Hour" against existing data taken while no promotions were running. This analysis is in attempt to determine if there is a statistical significance in payout percentages during special events.

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Do slots pay out the same during "Double XP"?

First I will start with an example to explain how statistical significance works. Assume you take a sample of heights of female people, you sample 5,000 females and they have an average height of 5' 7" tall. You then take another sample of 100 females and they have an average height of 6'1" tall. On the surface the second sample appears to come from a different population than the first sample, however, they could still be related. Fortunately there are statistical tests that can be run to determine if they are indeed from the same population or if the second sample came from say a woman's college basketball team or different population.

In any event you start by assuming they are the same, and you then prove or disprove your hypothesis, if they are different.

For this analysis we are comparing an earlier sample of Reel Chef slots taken over the past few days, to a sample taken recently during a "Double XP event"

-The original sample resulted in roughly a -7.75% average payout over the course of over 5,000 spins.
-The standard deviation of the original sample was 15.97%

-The sample taken during Double XP resulted in a average payout of -19.7% over 1,300 spins
-The standard deviation of the second sample was lower at 12.7%

Below is the results of this test, I was only able to run 1,300 spins because of the limited Bonus XP time, however it was enough to create a statistically significant sample.

On the surface it appears these two samples, came from different populations. ie, the payout was changed, and the reels in the slots had different available symbols producing a lower payout over time. However we first have to run some tests.

The tests involved are relatively complex, but fortunately Microsoft Excel has a add on pack of tools which make this much easier. 

If row 13 in the above calculation is LESS THAN row 9, we must REJECT the null hypothesis and accept that these two samples are unrelated, or from different populations.

The results of this test tell us that we can be 95% confident that these two samples (one without double XP) and (one with double XP) came from different populations.

So what does this mean?

This means that with all things being equal, we can assume a lower payout during double XP events. This also means that with relative ease, the pool for which symbols are drawn to determine payouts can be altered by the slots software administrators.